It is 2008. A coup overthrows the typically (logically) pro-American Mexican government, replacing it with a pro-Chinese (or Russian, pick your boogeyman) one. The Chinese were clearly behind the coup, openly using their diplomatic resources in the country (and all kinds of spooks, too) to push it over the top, regardless of strong Mexican cultural and economic ties to the United States. Additionally, they couldn’t care less about the fact that the muscle behind the coup are a cadre of deeply racist, anti-American thugs who advocate a complete removal of all aspects of American influence and culture in Mexico. It’s obvious the Chinese care nothing about Mexico itself, and are happy to set it on a disastrous road of confrontation with their massive, nuclear weapon wielding neighbor to the north.
The Mexican states of Baja California and Baja California Sur, both their governments and most of their populations, are horrified at this development. Rightly rejecting this unelected change of government as illegitimate, they declare they will not recognize the coup government, while at the same time not taking the step of fully separating themselves from the Mexican state.
Mexico immediately declares war on Baja (a term I will henceforth use to refer to both states collectively), and tries to invade. It is a disaster for their army, which is battered and finds itself surrounded by separatist forces and on the brink of annihilation.
Fortunately for them, through their influential Chinese allies, the Mexicans are able to establish a ceasefire that rescues their army, and sets up a negotiation format involving the Chinese and Russians, backing the illegitimate Mexican government; and the United States, backing the separatists.
An agreement is reached, which provides for mutual demilitarization, and further negotiations towards some sort of autonomy arrangement that will keep Baja as part of Mexico, but giving them the freedom to maintain US ties.
Mexico almost immediately violates the agreement, and invades Baja again. And again, it goes sideways for the Mexican army, who are beaten by the separatists and on the verge of annihilation.
Again, the Chinese are able to bail them out by getting a remarkably forgiving American government to persuade the Baja Californians to implement another ceasefire, and again negotiate in the same format as before.
Another agreement, similar to the first one, is reached. Both sides are to de-militarize their borders, removing heavy weapons. A detailed process to negotiate autonomy for Baja, but still within the Mexican state, is set out.
The Mexicans almost immediately violate this agreement.
They not only fail to remove heavy weapons, they commence shelling of the main Baja city of Tijuana. The attacks are brutal, random, and clearly terroristic, with no military value whatsoever.
They also do nothing to implement the agreements to move towards Baja’s autonomy within Mexico. If anything, they appear to have only made the agreements to pull their army’s chestnuts out of the fire, negotiating in complete bad faith. Later, it is revealed that their Chinese and Russian supporters knew this, and similarly were negotiating in bad faith, in the hope that the Mexicans would have time to become militarily strong enough to solve the problem brutally, with force.
For eight years, this situation drags on. Mexican shelling kills thousands in Baja, the vast majority civilians- men, women, and children. The Chinese and Russians do nothing to stop this, and instead pump Mexico full of weapons, spies, and military instructors. There are rumors that they even set up biological weapon labs to develop pathogens to be used against the United States.
And the objective of the Chinese clearly has little or anything to do with guaranteeing Mexican territorial sovereignty, or the good of the Mexican people, but is instead to threaten, weaken and destabilize the United States (or even better- break it up), and build military infrastructure to support attacks on the US proper.
In this scenario, does anyone in their right mind think the United States would have tolerated this for eight years? Or that they would not have been justified, after years of trying to peacefully resolve the situation, in choosing a military solution?
As a certain decrepit, demented, deeply foul leader likes to say, “Come on, man!”